– The Self proclaimed “Islamic State” has Weapon of Mass Destruction against itself
– ISIS suffering lack of foreign fighters, military and medical supplies
Published article: http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2016/01/01/646601/nr/nc via @alraimediagroup
By Elijah J. Magnier (@ejmalrai) –
With the end of the year 2015, where is the self-proclaimed “Islamic State” (ISIS) present on the map of Iraq, the accomplishments on the battlefield and the possibility of its continuation?
ISIS proved able to breach Muslim social societies around the world. It has success through spreading its aim through ideological thoughts already existing in many defined Muslim schools. But it has attracted horrors and devastation on the Muslim community, in particular the Sunni he claimed to defend.
In Iraq, for example, and since the establishment of the “state” in July 2014, ISIS has lost the South of Baghdad Jurf al-Sakher, Mahmudiyah, Al-Madaeen. On the West, western Abu Ghraib, Ameriyat al-Fallujah and Ramadi (the capital of Anbar is falling out of its control but destroyed by more than 80 percent and its inhabitants are refugees). East and North, the cities of Baquba, Muqdadiyah, Jalawla, al-Khales, Dhuluiya, Dujail, Balad, around Samarra, al-Alam, al-Door, Tikrit, Awja, Baiji (refinery and the city), Amerli, Tuzkhormato, most west of Kirkuk and Sinjar. It would be shorter to mention the list of territories which are still controlled by this terrorist group. Nonetheless, most cities that ISIS has lost have been destroyed and the inhabitants, mainly Sunni, suffered lost of proprieties and humiliation when displaced.
In northern Syria, the Kurds defeat ISIS, retake vast territory and progress towards Manbej. West of Palmyra, ISIS has lost vast territory, as well as in the northern reef of Aleppo, losing Kuweiress airport and villages around it. In reef Homs, ISIS was pushed out of Mheen and Haw’wareen where the Syrian Redha forces were deployed to face its still present troops in al-Qaryateyn.
The definition of a state is the means of rule over a defined or “sovereign” territory. ISIS has become prisoner of its same motto “remain and expand” (Baqiya wa Tatamaddad), unable to expand in Iraq and is in continuous shrinking. ISIS is still capable of taking initiatives, occupying lands in Syria and Iraq. Nevertheless, it is vulnerable to hold on to most – not all – territories. This shows a short tactical aim to register victories here and there, portray its presence and “conquest” to supporters around the world, especially among youth who can “sing” its heroic and epic military achievement. One thing ISIS has been extremely successful is to convince its followers around the World that all what media reports about losses or “tactical withdrawal” are mere counter propaganda and false information. ISIS fan boys do believe anything defused by ISIS supporters and reject any counter argument. That is the biggest ISIS success and achievement among its own supporters.
ISIS killings and slaughtering on the social networking has its effect on media and audience in the first months or even year of the raise of ISIS. It is no longer the case today. Beheading, hanging, drowning, killing by explosives or rockets, cutting hands, throwing from elevated building are no longer widely defuse and attractive propaganda materials. Most of ISIS publications became possible to predict. ISIS is no longer winning the attraction of the media but it is still a good product to analysts happy to translate its material.
ISIS – according to private information – is facing a challenge in battlefield and struggling from new challenges. A part from a sharp decline in foreign fighters migration in Syria and Iraq, ISIS is suffering from military and medical supplies. Fighters no longer possess heavy weapons or large stock of guided missiles. Moreover, the major blow is the lack of medical team and supplies supporting fighters in the battlefield. A medium and severe injuries during clashes become fatal. ISIS members who have concluded few weeks’ first aid courses are unable to deal with non-classical human damage. A lower limb injury becomes catastrophic and fatal and is, in many cases, imputed. A lungs injury is lethal, eye damage is a permanent lost. ISIS is struggling in its hospitals to host thousands of wounded of war.
Yes, ISIS is using Weapons of Mass Destruction against itself, fighting with no specific or realistic objective. There is no long term strategic horizon to ISIS and it is clear that 2016 will be a year where ISIS will shrink in Mesopotamia and the Levant.